onedb1
24 Jul 2017
Scroll down to my post on the 25th of may and you get why I mostly trust price and nothing else ... This is my best short with the old destruction of Foxtons from 375p ( some dude told be going long was like shooting fish in a barrel lol lol lol ) - whilst Acacia am short from 500p ! I didn't post daily about this short like some do and kept quiet for nearly 2 months and prior to that. I posted once and by the looks of things totally ignored..... This is a big win for me , even better than my long IGG or FXPO or Ithaca. ---- old post --25-05-2017- -------- scroll to page 3 and you will find it . Anyone who was long though was going against Trend . In my view the position was always to stay short certainly not long here From my experience 2 things are to be learnt from a chart like Acacia A) it was clear that the stock was showing lower highs . Ie not trending up price wise but down. So weakening . B) Once the 200 day SMA turned down , that was your last call to get out . Not so much the price cross. On a side note the 50 SMA provides more whips saws but it was clear that for ages it was not in good form For what its worth , as I hardly ever post a short position given the resentment one gets on BBs , but IMO going against Trend is only a skill a few have . Pro traders do what the market tells them not the other way . I haven't read the narrative of the news . Never do initially. I do though follow fundamentals not just technicals. Acacia was one of my secret shorts .------ end of old post ---
bulltraderpt
24 Jul 2017
More infor here: [link] Mining now hit with $190 billion tax bill in TanzaniaShares collapsed on the news to close almost 21% lower in London.Acacia Mining is Tanzania’s biggest gold producer and operates three major mines in the country — Bulyanhulu, Buzwagi and North Mara (pictured). (Image courtesy of Acacia Mining.) Things are going from bad to worse for Acacia Mining (LON:ACA), one of the largest gold producers in Africa, as the government of Tanzania sent the company a $190-billion bill in fines and allegedly unpaid taxes from two of its mines.Together with disputing the astronomic bill, the company — Tanzania's No.1 gold producer — said it’s evaluating all of its options and rights, adding it will provide a further update in due course.Shares collapsed once again on the news to close almost 21% lower in London at 184.5p, dragging the company's market value to less than $984 million, according to Google Finance. The stock has lost 66% of its value since March, when President John Magufuli’s ban on concentrates exports came into effect, affecting two of Acacia’s three mines or about a third of the firm’s output.
kolwezimundele
24 Jul 2017
Re: RNS Tax Penalty of $190B Africans can be so ridiculous. And Tanzania used to be more of the more stable governments. Even worse, if assets are taken over they will simply be sold for personal gain and the country will lose everything. Such stupid actions by government but this has been the history of Africa for the past 50 years. They have learnt nothing.
shugg1e
24 Jul 2017
Re: Acacia interim Like i said on fridayNearly got there todayVery weak
tornadotony
24 Jul 2017
RNS Tax Penalty of $190B They are effectively trying to seize the company assets through the Inland Revenue on reported claims not even shared with the company. The only avenue left is through International Courts and arbitration. The value of the stock is likely to be near zero by the end of this week unless somebody can pull off a miracle. The company has to decide on what should now happen with the Acacia workforce. I no longer view Tanzania as an investment grade country. I hope all UK investors made their Dunkirk like escape from here already. Acacia was my largest source of investment trading profit in 2016/17. I am truly sad what has happened for the company and anybody left getting hammered on this stock share.
tornadotony
22 Jul 2017
Like Chavez in Venezuela Chavez sacked a lot of people in the oil industry in Venezuela. Since those days the state run oil company has amassed $66B of debt and many of us now following the oil sector suspect they could go under by September. The desire to rid of all foreign talent that works inside Acacia is highly disturbing. The numbers are not great in this regard but the action is highly symbolic. These go beyond any previous issue and are in fact the nasty face of nationalism and possibly racism. On principle a lot of major investors will have no choice but to avoid investing in the company as to do so promotes values that many other governments hosting those investor institutions would simply not accept.The additional concern is that Acacia will be followed by any other company in Tanzania that has positive resources in that the President will simply seize or make it unprofitable to continue their operations in their country. This eventually impacts on the infrastructure that runs a country and a society. The local people end up nearly starving as we now see amongst Venezuela children today and are put down by brute force.Acacia itself is a wonderful company. The management team is first class especially the CEO who is one of the best in the whole gold sector. The diminishing value of Acacia is not the fault of any company employee. It is their bad luck to be based in Tanzania at this time. I will keep Acacia on my watch list for signs that the current self destructing stupidity of the Tanzanian President which is more about his ego, might come to a swift end and so would attract me to buy stock once again. I am not forecasting on Acacia stock prices as like others one wonders how a sensible economy can soon evolve and return to Tanzania.
Brill Bee
21 Jul 2017
Tanzania tells foreign Acacia Mining staff to leave I can see Acacia's share price going to zero. Possibly before reaching zero Barrick Gold will buy out the remaining shares. The President of Tanzania is on course to turn the country into the next Zimbabwe. My guess is the President is going to drive Acacia into the ground and seize the mines using the army. The same goes for Shanta Gold.I feel sorry for the employees. They need to form an action committee and take the President on before it's too late. Perhaps Acacia and Barrick Gold could fund the opposition.Article on employees having difficulty getting work permits:[link]
shugg1e
21 Jul 2017
Re: Acacia interim 232p tony and just about the only gold stock i wouldn't touch with a barge pole at the momentcan see these crashing to 150p areaones to buy are POLY HGM CEY and HOC all decent companies about to lift off.
tornadotony
21 Jul 2017
Acacia interim Great production has helped Acacia far more than many may have expected. No divi and negative cash flow in Q2 has not surprisingly taken Acacia into the 250's. The drop in cash is worth around 32p on the stock price imop. I see 253 as a possible close of day price.
tornadotony
17 Jul 2017
Re: Tanzania The total tax take overall has moved from around 60% to 65% on net earnings. For Centamin in Egypt it is 53% if we take as a comparator. However Acacia currently produces at least 20% more gold than Centamin and this would be near 40% without the export ban on gold sands and has a larger resource base that is easily 20% more as well. Taking a median figure the tax penalty is probably another 2% overall when comparing with Centamin. Additionally Acacia gives 10% of its profits to the local communities in aid which Centamin rarely does. If the tax burden gets any higher than the business model is to risky for private investors as reinvestment models would fall apart especially if gold slips further down in price. If the current arrangement is the last tax hike than Acacia could just about carry on as a business. The earnings profile is currently looking weaker for Acacia. I am surprised that the shares are not sub 250p. It is high time the government got off this company's back. Until they do it is a very high risk investment bet.
Emerald Carrots
17 Jul 2017
Tanzania "avoid" for investment If it's true the new laws mean the Government can re-negotiate contracts at any time then that is quite frankly madness. It meants contracts are worthless. If they want to get a bigger slice of the cake they should have made it that contracts can be re-negotiated after x years.... say 6 for example. Then at least there would be some certainty. I think the Tanzanian Government are going to get a huge financial shock now the investment is/has dried up.All IMHO.
tornadotony
29 Jun 2017
Re: Question No 2 I suspect the issue will be left hanging around for sometime as a lot of people are backed into their own corners. Jefferies had a 265p value on 1250 gold without this issue being resolved.As of late Acacia has acted positively with their major shareholder Barrick Gold helping them. Barrick Gold is of course a big tax payer to the Canadian Government and Tanzania is a major recipient of Canadian overseas Government aid. The Tanzanian president has a pyrrhic victory if continues his line with Acacia. So the stock has recovered to a degree on the basis that something has to be sorted out. The downside is that China, India, Europe, Middle east and USA are not buying much physical gold and it is hard to see why they might suddenly do so. July could be a weak month for gold as India brought forward so much of its buying by several months. Acacia has a habit of having a bad July month but usually does well in August. If we get no news on Acacia by August, I would consider things to be going safer than they were and buy if it were around 270p. In the end the decision can only be yours as to what risk reward ratio you want to take.
walterbloodaxe13
29 Jun 2017
Question No 2 Hi All,Posted a question back in April regarding the apparent determination of the president to make sure he/they confiscated the bulk of the value in Acacia. I had one response which suggested low £3's as a good buy in spot.Given the continued and obviously fabricated allegations this now appears to be less about apparent actions and more like an outright value grab. I understand that Jefferies have a £3 ish valuation based on no sand extraction but can Acacia survive without a deal with the President. If a deal is made what is the cost 50% of the value? 90% of the value?The company website appears to have solid answers and justifications but when you are being robed shouting you are being robbed does not help unless help is at hand. Not sure where the help is coming from.Any ideas on how to evaluate a new entry point as the maths of investing appear out the window now. Answers welcome.
tornadotony
28 Jun 2017
Blackrock sells off Acacia Despite Blackrock selling 1/6 of its Acacia shares the price goes up. India gold taxes come into effect 1 July so the jewellers and bullion dealers bought all their gold for the year in advance. With USA not buying gold of late on the physical and the euro going up which depresses European gold buying I am not so sure it is going to be a good summer for gold and gold miners in general.
tornadotony
26 Jun 2017
Re: North Mara - locals attempt to steal ore Until the President agree an independent test house and methodology than these problems are not going to be resolved with Acacia. Magulfi is a chemist by training so he does know science. If samples were contaminated, it would be in just one part of the sands in one container in all likelihood so multiple tests give proper statistics. A scientist who misrepresents the craft which equates to a search for truth takes their local civilisation back to witchcraft, voodoo, make believe and superstition. In the end society becomes fearful and nothing gets done or achieved. It is a return to planet of the apes with no evolution or technical development.
