Rhigos
14 Oct 2016
Broker recommendation Exane BNP Paribas today reaffirms its outperform investment rating on Associated British Foods PLC (LON:ABF) and cut its price target to 2900p (from 3300p).If SP were to revert to 10 year mean trend, the SP would be 3350p. Suspect this might not happen since referendum result has reduced value of pound, so increasing ABF costs in pound terms. I still think ABF has been oversold.
II Editor
29 Sep 2016
NEW ARTICLE: A stock in one chart: AB Foods overrated? "Former City analyst Phil Oakley believes the fortunes of many companies can be summed up in a single financial chart. This week it's LSE:ABF:AB Foods.Associated British Foods has been a very popular share in recent years. This might be surprising ..."[link]
II Editor
20 Sep 2016
NEW ARTICLE: Stockwatch: A high-flying bid target "Despite worries of food manufacturers being squeezed by retailers, here's one doing well.Helped by acquisitions, AIM-listed LSE:FIF:Finsbury Food Group has declared prelims to 2 July showing adjusted annual pre-tax profit up 40.8% to £16.0 ..."[link]
notconfucius
15 Sep 2016
Re: Trading update 12/09 Expected a bounce this morning after John Lewis results -appreciate that in no way strictly comparable but with JL profits down by nearly 15% and pension deficit increase of approx £500m it makes Primark performance look good IMO. Link to BBC info on JL[link]
Rhigos
12 Sep 2016
Re: Trading update 12/09 [link] above link: "Monday that the weaker pound after the U.K.'s June 23 vote to leave the European Union would bolster its results for fiscal 2016, ending Saturday. But it warned that the currency move would hurt profit margins in fiscal 2017, because it has many expenses in dollars and earns much of its revenue in pounds and euros, and would turn its modest pension surplus into a GBP200 million ($267.7 million) deficit."Weaker pound due to vote to leave EU explains fall of over 11% in ABF SP today. I find it hard to believe the forecast for £200 pension deficit from a modest surplus. Surely if they have a fair number of FTSE 100 shares pension fund that have gone up since referendum. Still think sell-off an over-reaction.
Rhigos
12 Sep 2016
Trading update 12/09 [link] summary: • Associated British Foods said it now expects operating profit for its full financial year to be ahead of the prior year. AB Foods said its underlying operating performance in the second half of its financial year ending 17th September was ahead of its expectations, with the weakening of sterling since "Brexit" resulting in a translation benefit. AB Foods said it now expects operating profit and earnings per share to be ahead of the prior year.Does not seem to me to justify SP fall of 7.25%, I must be missing something. I am fairly confident SP will bounce back at least 4% this week so IMO a buying opportunity. Not one of my shares up today. At least ARM share price fixed :-/
II Editor
01 Aug 2016
NEW ARTICLE: Sugar hit charges upgrade at AB Foods "With our love of fast-fashion showing no signs of waning, the success of high street chain Primark continues to keep sugar-to-retail conglomerate LSE:ABF:Associated British Foods in vogue.Primark has been the driver of most of ABF's growth over ..."[link]
Rhigos
07 Jul 2016
Re: 5th US location for Primark Today's trading statement pretty bullish. SP +8.89% (ii have got it wrong). I like this bit:"The underlying operating performance of the group during the third quarter was ahead of our expectation, with an improvement in our sugar business, and on 28 June we completed the buyout of the minority interests in Illovo. In the third quarter, sterling was weaker against most of our major trading currencies compared with the same period last year, resulting in a translation benefit. Following the result of the EU referendum, sterling has weakened further and at these rates we expect a bigger translation benefit in the final quarter with no material transactional effect.As a result, our outlook for this financial year has improved and we no longer expect a decline in adjusted earnings per share for the group for the full year."I think Morgan Stanley have got it wrong.
philanderer
22 Jun 2016
Re: 5th US location for Primark Downgrade this morning by Morgan Stanley to equal-weight. Target price cut from 3500p to 2650p[link]
Rhigos
22 Jun 2016
5th US location for Primark [link] idea why ABF down so sharply this morning unless it is worries about EU exit. Has anyone got any information on why ABF down over 3% this morning when market is generally up?I'm concerned about this mornings fall but am still bullish regarding Primark.
Rhigos
13 Jun 2016
Re: Buying opportunity IMO My limit order of 2870 met at opening at a tad under 2850 which pleased me. Now mid price 2862.If SP reaches £34 I will sell 25%.
Rhigos
13 Jun 2016
Re: Telegraph- Questor Questor have a bit of nerve they have in the past few months on two occasions advocated selling ABF because they considered them over priced. They stated that the profit growth from Primark that the share price indicated was overoptimistic. I ignored their sell recommendations which were when SP was depressed. The improvement in sugar market is good but real driver is Primark IMO.
nk1999
12 Jun 2016
Telegraph- Questor "The Questor column: Things looks sweet for Associated British Foods after sugar price recovery: Things are looking sweet for Associated British Foods as the Primark Owner and sugar producer is well placed to benefit from soaring sugar prices. ABF is one of the largest producers of sugar in the world, but was battered by a five-year sugar price slump. The price in the US has soared almost 40% this year to $19.4 a pound, its highest level since 2013. Brazil, the world’s biggest producer of sugar – accounting for roughly a quarter of the world’s output – has been hampered by heavy rains midway through its crucial harvesting season. The recovery in the sugar price could be a huge boost to ABF. The sugar division delivered profits of £434 million in 2013, but they collapsed to just £43 million last year as prices fell. The company has slashed costs and bought a larger stake in the South African-based Illovo sugar business, leaving it well placed to ride a recovery. Obviously, sugar prices need to hold these gains, and ABF’s September year end means full year results won’t receive all the benefit. Also the European sugar price would have to follow the US lead. That said, the outlook has clearly changed. ABF has been a solid performer for investors. The company has a strong balance sheet, with net debt of £421 million at the end of February – just 6% of the £6.8 billion in shareholder equity. It also remains an astounding cash generator. Even after spending money on Primark’s expansion and the acquisition of the Ilovo stake, the group can still easily pay investors about £270 million in dividends. Shares have fallen 12% lower this year as the sugar business struggled and Primark slowed. We now think the rapid recovery in the sugar price should hold and that will give the shares a catalyst for re-rating as analysts look to next year’s numbers. The shares are by no means cheap, trading on 29 times the 102p in forecast earnings per share to September. However, next year’s numbers need upgrading. We’d buy ahead of that. Associated British Foods at £28.67. Questor says “Buy”."
Rhigos
10 Jun 2016
Buying opportunity IMO Today's market fall providers a buying opportunity IMO. It is my view that SP will rise above £30 this year because of Primark growth abroad. I have placed a limit order after market closed to buy at 2870p. ABF is my largest share holding by value but I still think a 25% top up is reasonable though it will bring my holding to 6.8% of my total share value. I last sold the same quantity of shares, as new limit order, on 05 Oct 2015 @ 3,396.6. There might well be a bounce back up Monday in which case my limit order may not be met.
JR710
08 May 2016
The Petition is gaining support Apologies for board hopping but-The petition is going quite well; ~4500 signatures so far. Although it really needs a turbo boost.[link] petition was stalled in parliament since 12th Aug 15; finally green lit on 12th feb 2016.The FCA don't even reply on the matter, now is your chance to have your say.If you hate seeing buys reported as sells etc!!!!!!Has already been sent to Martin Lewis, Daily Mail, Moneyweek & Watchdog.My local MP supported this petition by writing to the petitions committee to help un-stall it.There’s 650 MP’s in Westminster, So have you written to your MP? 649 to go!If this petition doesn’t reach 10,000; then imo we might as well have not bothered as it will almost certainly be filed B1N; @ 10,000 the government should respond. We are currently getting approx. 100 new signatures a week, but need 3x that amount to reach the target with only 15 weeks to go.At 5000 I will send this to the PM & the chancellor as well as my MP again.So – If you haven’t yet signed or indeed have but haven’t passed it on to others, then now’s the time to do so. If each person who has signed can get just one other person to sign then we will double the total immediately. I have posted to all aim listed gas n oilies, currently doing the footsy 100. But I can only do so much to push this. Really need you guys & gals to help. Thanks to all who have signed so far.We really need a social / media savvy individual to help generate more interest in this.
