Rhigos
07 Nov 2017
Re: Results From CSS:"AB Foods, which owns the Primark fashion chain as well as agriculture, ingredients and sugar businesses, said pretax profit in the year to September 16 soared to £1.58bn from £1.04bn the year before, driven by revenue climbing to £15.36bn from £13.40bn. The company raised its full year dividend 12% to 41.0 pence. Primark sales rose 19% year-on-year and climbed 12% at constant currency, but the company warned the unit's operating margin tightened to 10.4% from 11.6% because of the strength of the US dollar on input costs."Results look pretty good to me. Decrease in operating 11.6 to 10.4 due to dollar strength worrying. I think SP will recover in the coming months. Up until yesterday SP risen 34% in the last 12 months. Dividend has now increased every year since 1997.
Uncle Doug
07 Nov 2017
Results Key takeaway "Grocery revenue, however, dropped 6% at constant exchange rates".Last year profits up 47% , this year 22%. SP down 4% at 3200 as I type. Maybe SP is too high at the moment and competition is fighting back.
Rhigos
12 Sep 2017
Why is ABF struggling SP up 1.8% at 8:46 so as I suspected oversold yesterday.This article by Shares Magazine explains yesterdays fall. It seems it it is groceries division that investors are concerned about. I invest in ABF because of the growth in Primark and over the years have learnt not to worry too much about other divisions.[link] the last two days there have been 8 broker buy recommendations for ABF and one overweight.[link]
tejo
11 Sep 2017
Update This is a class company and I have added to-day. Top medium term investment imho
Rhigos
11 Sep 2017
Good Trading update but SP falls. From CSS:"Associated British Foods expects adjusted operating profit to be well ahead of last year. In its third quarter update in July the group reported an improvement in its expectation for the full year underlying operating performance as a result of a stronger profit delivery from Primark. But a pre-close update today said that since then it had experienced an even lower level of markdown which had further improved the full year outlook. It said: "Net interest expense will be at a similar level to last year and, as previously explained, an increase in other financial expense will reflect the impact of last year's fall in bond yields on our UK defined benefit pension scheme.""Reading RNS everything looked positive apart from sterling weakness against dollar resulting in some higher costs for materials at Primark. Good to see 2/3 of Primark profits from abroad.My feeling is that market expectations for Primark had become overly optimistic which would explain this mornings 2% SP fall. I think SP will recover within weeks. At current high SP I still think at least a weak buy.
Rhigos
31 Aug 2017
Re: Time to top slice perhaps Sold 20% of my ABF shares at just over 3290 yesterday. 54.7% gain on average purchase price.
Rhigos
30 Aug 2017
Re: Time to top slice perhaps Noticed typo in all-time closing high 3599p on 2 Dec 2015 (not 3559). Also 'if' which should have been an 'of ' i.e. "value of shares", fat finger syndrome I fear.
Rhigos
30 Aug 2017
Time to top slice perhaps SP now above my lower target of 3190. Weighing up fear and greed and think greed is slightly greater. Will place a limit order in to sell 20% of my ABF shares at 3290 or more. Average cost of my ABF shares 2088.3p a share. Currently my largest value shareholding at 6.37% of total value if shares which makes me a bit nervous.I think there is a good chance of ABF going above its all time closing high of 3559 in the next 12 months so am not planning to top slice more than 20% of my shares.
Rhigos
18 Jul 2017
Dodgy flip-flops From CSS:Investments:"Primark, owned by Associated British Foods, said it is recalling a range of men's flip-flops for having higher than accepted levels of a chemical substance. Primark said the flip-flops did not meet its chemical compliance standards, having levels of a "restricted substance" in excess of 1.0 milligrams per kilogram. A spokesman for the chain confirmed that the chemical in question was chrysrene, a common dye for dark colours, but said the levels of the substance would pose a minimal health risk. Primark said the products were on sale from 4th January to 2nd June, and it will offer a full refund without proof of purchase."Not much impact on ABF I would have thought.My latest target price to top cut is £32.90 but minded perhaps to drop to £31.90.
Uncle Doug
06 Jul 2017
Re: Trading Update Today Strong TU today. Expect SP to rise when market opens and SP should get to £35/£37 no problem by Y/E. Encouraging overseas expansion and good sales in USA.
Uncle Doug
06 Jul 2017
Trading Update Today Trading performanceGroup revenue from continuing businesses for the 40 weeks ended 24 June 2017 was 10% ahead of the same period last year at constant currency and 20% ahead at actual exchange rates. The results of the group in the third quarter were strong with revenue growth of 13% at constant currency and 20% at actual exchange rates. The results to date reflect a material translation benefit from the devaluation of sterling following the result of the UK referendum on EU membership in June last year. At current exchange rates, the translation benefit will be significantly less in the last quarter of our financial year. The underlying operating performance of the group during the third quarter was ahead of our forecast as a result of a stronger profit delivery from Primark which has marginally improved our group outlook for the full year. We continue to expect to report good growth in adjusted operating profit and adjusted earnings per share for the group. References to growth in the following commentary are based on constant currency. GroceryOur grocery businesses achieved further revenue growth in the quarter with continued progress for Twinings Ovaltine and George Weston Foods in Australia. In the UK, the bread market has remained very competitive which, combined with inflationary cost pressures in bakery, has had a negative impact on Grocery margins. SugarRevenue growth for AB Sugar remained strong in the third quarter with the continuing benefit of higher prices and increased production from Illovo in Africa. Whilst world prices have recently fallen below last year's level, this will have little impact on the current financial year with most sales contracts in the EU already committed. UK sugar production for the 2016/17 year was 900,000 tonnes with a smaller contracted growing area than last year and lower beet yields. Looking ahead to the post-quota environment that begins in the autumn, the contracted area for the 2017/18 season has been increased by a third. The new crop is now well established and making good progress. In north China, a record beet crop was processed this year and the new season crop is progressing well. Prices have remained stable and, in May, China's Commerce Ministry announced additional duties on sugar imports. Illovo expects to produce 1.7 million tonnes of sugar this year compared with 1.4 million tonnes produced in the comparable months last year. The season has started well with a good quality crop recovering from last year's drought. AgricultureRevenue growth in the third quarter at AB Agri was slightly ahead of that achieved in the first half but margin remains under some pressure in UK and China Feeds. Frontier's performance has been held back by low UK grain stocks and little market volatility, although the crop input segment of the business is performing strongly. IngredientsYear on year profit growth remains strong driven by yeast and bakery ingredients and good performances from Abitec in the US and Enzymes. The extension to the enzymes factory in Finland was completed during the quarter. This is the second expansion of this plant in recent years and will increase fermentation capacity by over 40%. RetailSales at Primark in the year to date are 13% ahead of last year at constant currency driven by increased retail selling space and growth in like-for-like sales. At actual exchange rates sales continued to benefit from sterling weakness and are 21% ahead year to date.(1) The increase in average retail selling space to date against last year was 13%. Sales growth in the last 16 weeks was 15% at constant currency and 21% at actual exchange rates. Third quarter trading was particularly strong in the lead up to Easter, benefiting from comparison with results last year that were affected by poor weather and an earlier Easter holiday. As a consequence, like-for-like sales in this period were better than the first ha
Rhigos
20 Jun 2017
SP over £30 at 08:36 this morning ABF is my largest value share holding at 5.8% of total value. At £30 SP I am up 43.7% on average purchase price. I think the SP will go up more in the next 12 months as a result of growing profits from Primark and their sugar business. That said I think I may top slice, selling 20% as risky having so much invested in one company.ABF has been a good share to trade which I have done 12 times in the last 7 years. Never paid more than 2849.6 to buy. My target price at which to sell some has been £34 for some time but it is taking longer than I expected to get there (BREXIT etc). Perhaps £31 a more reasonable medium time target.
Rhigos
20 Jun 2017
Re: Result analysis by Charles Stanley - Out... Realised only investors with a CS-D account could log on view the analysis.Here is the final paragraph with recommendation:Recommendation maintained at Outperform. ABF delivered a strong set of H1 results,benefiting from a turnaround in the sugar market (Sugar accounted for 18% of H1 profit, cf 1%in FY’2016), Grocery and Ingredients saw margin improvement and Primark sales continue togrow through increased selling space. With the FY outlook improved, the Group benefitingfrom currency translation across its divisions, and the adverse impact of the higher US dollar onPrimark’s margin being largely mitigated by good buying power, we stay with our Outperformrecommendation.
Rhigos
05 May 2017
Result analysis by Charles Stanley - Outperform [link]
Uncle Doug
18 Apr 2017
Interims Tomorrow I'm encouraged by recent rises and broker upgrades. Avg target price is £30. Interims tomorrow so let's see if they're positive and ABF can get towards that £30 in next few months. Must be sales growth to come in Europe where Primark is still quite young.
