shugg1e
07 May 2016
Re: Harder AND lower grade ore?! PS How is that short going?????
shugg1e
07 May 2016
Re: Harder AND lower grade ore?! lol good call QEWhat a tool up 50% since your sell rec
shugg1e
18 Apr 2016
Re: Harder AND lower grade ore?! give it a rest mate your boring
QE to Infinitee 1
18 Apr 2016
Re: Harder AND lower grade ore?! code1, its not me who is saying it,it is your very own CEO Reza Vaziri .The extract below is from AAZ last RNS. "Anglo Asian CEO Reza Vaziri commented, "Following record gold production in 2015 when we produced 72,032 ounces of gold, the first quarter of 2016 has unfortunately seen a slow-down in production. Ordinarily, the first quarter of the year has always had lower production due to the difficult winter weather conditions. However, the harder rock that has been encountered together with its lower grade has also further lowered production compared to the previous quarter. To combat this harder rock, we have contracted for a second SAG mill to be installed in the agitation leach plant and we expect the SAG mill to be operational in Q3 2016" "Operational in Q3"you will note,which is not good for Q2.And it is not going to do anything about the low grades.It will just increase the amount of ore that is crushed to be processed,which by the way is a finite amount in an already running running at capacity AL plant which is already running 24/7.Or perhaps you disagree? As for the other comment below yours,"up 13%".Really? Since my sell rec in March 2016,6.0-6.75,the only difference is the spread has got larger 5.75-6.75.Perhaps you refute this observation as well? On the POG,if any of us were that good at predicting its future price we wouldn't be wasting money on a struggling heavily debt ridden company in Azerbijan dependent on it rising forever,would we?QE.
code1
14 Apr 2016
Re: Harder AND lower grade ore?! During Q1 2016, the Company mined 344,171 tonnes of ore from its Gedabek open pit. 17,756 tonnes of ore with an average grade of 7.91 grammes per tonne was mined from its Gadir underground mine. The Company has recently purchased an MT2010 mine truck, a TD1 underground drill machine and a ST7 Scooptram loader from Atlas Copco for EUR 1.2 million to improve the productivity of the Gadir mine. The majority of this equipment is already at site with the remaining items expected within the next 10 days.Gadir with an average grade of 7.91gpt mined. A spend of €1.2m on additional new equipment to improve productivity plus the installation of a SAG mill to deal with the harder rock and extra throughput from Gadir. Problem encountered, addressed and solution in place, perfect management. Expect to see AL plant gold recovery increase as production and new plant steps implemented. Onwards and upwards.Qtr1/16 lower than Qtr1/15 (17,185 - 13,383) by 3,802 ozs not 5,000. The difficult winter conditions are outside aaz control however they have addressed the harder rock and taken steps to increase higher grade ore output from Gadir. As we know the winter conditions have little effect on the agitation leach plant, it's the open pit leaching that's effected by inclement weather. More and more analysts are predicting pog is in renewed bull market.Your distortion and naysaying has a motive no doubt, point being there's plenty of doubt when it comes to your version
shugg1e
14 Apr 2016
Re: Harder AND lower grade ore?! ha ha ha whatever mate i see the market doesn't think so up 13%dont fight the market golds in a new bull phase.go ahead and feel free to short all mining sharesgood luck
QE to Infinitee 1
14 Apr 2016
Harder AND lower grade ore?! ..."the harder rock that has been encountered together with its lower grade has also further lowered production compared to the previous ..."13,000 kozs for Q1 down from an average 18,000 kozs last year,a massive drop of 5,000kozs.The knock on effect in costs will not be good and we are potentially looking at a possible measley 26,000 kozs for H1.They can install all the extra sag mills they want it will do nothing about the low grade of ore so you can forget about last years Q averages of 18,000 kozs and one off FY production of 72,000kozs.Even if they improve by 3,000kozs per Q in H2 still only comes to 56,000kozs for FY.Ditto for the following years also?Dreadful.Oh,and on the direction of the POG if you look at the last 10 years it is clearly possibly still on a downward trend.Possibly testing new lows in the next year or 2.I live on the planet Earth.
shugg1e
13 Apr 2016
Re: 6.0 - 6.75 What planet are you on?Gold has began a new bull market it will not be going to $1000 lolAverage gold sales for the Q1 were $1184 and since gold is now rising nicely higher sales costs will filter through in the Q2 ,3 and 4 updates.I think there a great little buy and have yet to be re rated by the rising gold price.At the moment its the big miners moving north wards the little miners will follow in due course.
bbnnbbnn
12 Apr 2016
Been a long time Hi I've been away from shares for the past 4 years diversify my profit into houses looking to start buying again into gold /oil this was a little favourite of mine catching up with the news looks good
QE to Infinitee 1
24 Mar 2016
6.0 - 6.75 and probably going lower.Hence the sell rec.Good chance you could pick these up at a later date for much less than current price.Gold could test $1,000.AAZ may have to "raise cash" for copper expansion.A few good months will not make $50m debt disappear overnight.QE.
TwoSporrans
24 Mar 2016
February As January A poster on the ADVFN bb stated Gold production for Jan.+Feb. combined to be 267kg yesterday evening. On a per-day basis, the February gold production is virtually the same as for January; similar weather probably accounts for this ongoing ~20% shortfall. [So ~4250oz on 30 day month basis.]Might be an ongoing situation with lower grades though; AAZ have not enlightened us.Silver output is well up but remains a small sideshow at 42kg over the 2 months.No figures given for the much more important copper.Having bought 2*37.5k shares in Feb. and early March, I sold one batch for [7p] a reasonable profit and to de-risk. This was influenced by the January production figures [which I expected to turn out similar in February] but the main reason was that several weeks of resurgent POG was doing little to induce further buyers; not only in AAZ but in OMI in which I also hold a modest stake.With the POG rally losing steam, the short term prognosis for the AAZ share price was/is lower rather than higher, short of bumper production figures or some unexpected boon. Hence my selling down to a holding I'm OK with taking an investment/longer perspective. On a 3-6 month view, I remain cautiously optimistic.If the POG can hold firm above its now rising averages - up to 200days - and AAZ's production does typically recover with the Spring, ditto costs, then odds are a flurry of investment money will revive the share price.To the extent the [now $48-49mn] debt gets paid down, the more net buying will follow.Though it's possible to understand most of the key determinants of gold and gold derivatives buying/selling at any given time, it's nigh impossible to forecast even the general trend of how these will play out going forward by tracking these fluctuating determinants.This is particularly so with the leveraged gold derivatives side of the market which developed economy investors/traders overwhelmingly employ and which have dominated the movements in the POG.The underlying purchasing of physical gold, predominantly Asian is more stable/predictable and has a key long term bearing on the POG but the recent rally has been very much due to gold derivatives plays, primarilly as a hedge against deflation [notably -ve rates] and currency depreciation, though the latter is in the round a zero sum game.Yes, there are other factors but these come across to me as the current key drivers.Given the above, methinks the broad technical picture is as good a guide as any as to where the POG will head over the next few months.Looks to me that lows are going to be tested over the next few weeks.To the extent these lows are above previous ones and the ensuing highs can beat the $1280/oz recent highs, all should be well for at least a few months.All a gamble but with AAZ priced close to assets firesale value, there is plenty of upside if AAZ can achieve its production targets over the year ahead and POG averages even as little as $1150/oz .TS
ValueSeeker8
09 Mar 2016
Re: January production Most likely cause is winter conditions as it gets extremely cold and Heap Leaching (done outdoors) becomes impossible; also the pipes of the Agitation Leaching (AL) plant freeze and that affects production, it happens every winter with AAZ but the extent of it varies depending on the severity of the conditions.Anyway, nice to see things improving for this company and my plans of acheiving 200%+ return on here in the medium term starting (barely) to take shape, so still holding on despite the big red figures!GLALTH
valueinvestormike
23 Feb 2016
January production From abc.az newsIn January 2016 production totaled 135.5 kg of gold and 22.9 kg of silver. Apparently this is 21% down on 2015135.5kgs is only 4761 ounces! What's the reason for this low production figure??
TwoSporrans
11 Feb 2016
Hedge Buy? Last September, having noticed the turnaround in AAZ's performance, particularly wrt plant productivity, I was tempted to buy but the POG situation was very strongly dissuasive."And the pog seems to have changed direction,for how long and to what extent who knows?!." - QE2I.This is the strongest rally in the POG for 2 years; the 200 day ma has been smashed.Having said, it's come off of a truly dire 2015 series of plunges and it's far too early to have any confidence we are seeing much more than just an unusually extended technical rally.i share your caution QE.It does seem however that the Chinese have renewed buying, retail and Government alike.Take with a pinch but Gov't reserves are increasing again according to:[link] somewhat of a capital exodus coming out of China these days which doesn't auger too well either for the economic, assets nor currency prognosis there.So Chinese gold buying makes sense.Though to extent the Yuan gets defended, the $Reserves have been drawn down on heavily which makes me question how much the gold reserve buying can be sustained for.Whatever, there's an inverse correlation between the POG and the global equity prices as the latter continue to plunge.So, for me a gold play is a hedge of sorts:Though I've been pretty much out of US/European-UK/Japanese equities for several months, I have retained a substantial holding in Asian dividend shares and added to it on plunges.[Being 60% portfolio weighted in UK commercial property - direct, not shares made me ~10% over 2015, assuaging being ~20% in these Asian defensives, which have though, as yet, maintained a very healthy dividend payout. But I think the commercial property play is pretty much spent].Hence I've bought a modest 35k of AAZ shares; much more though than the 7.5k residual holding as of yesterday.My main concerns with AAZ remain:a. The large debt pile and speed at which it can be paid down, bearing in mind the high [12%? interest payments].b. Potential instability in Azerbaijan; not least at the Political level.The plunging manat is all very well from a narrow AAZ perspective; Azerzi [Government] wealth destruction may have deleterious consequences though. TS
QE to Infinitee 1
08 Feb 2016
Re: Operational Costs B3, all the proceeds from the silver and copper(and zinc)are all deducted from the cost of producing the gold.Dont make the mitake of counting them twice!! A minimum of 12.5% of all the gold produced every year goes straight to the govt.(It will eventually rise to 51% of all gold produced.) So say for every Q AAZ produce around 18k ozs of gold. Deduct 12.5%,for the PSA share,which we could round down to 15k ozs. Say in 2016 the average cost per oz is $650. For every $100 over $650 AAZ make $1.5m pre tax and after PSA. Take a (31%) third off for tax and that equals approx. $1m profit. An average price of gold say $1150 this Q will mean $5m profit. Still to pay HQ costs and debt repayment ie interest. Possible costs could still go lower depending on flotation and flotation expansion. And the pog seems to have changed direction,for how long and to what extent who knows?!.Peace.QE.
