Bill1703
16 Apr 2018
Re: Closing Price? "According to this article in the Telegraph ... the share price on the graph at 16:52 on Friday was 135.75"The chart looks perfectly okay to me, Games? Not impossible they have quietly corrected it, of course - the benefit of online "newspapers"!Otherwise, not much in the article... hardly a surprise the rating agencies remain relaxed, for what has really changed?The partial SP recovery is welcome, of course, but still only partial... the valuation of the equity remains inconsistent with an investment-grade capital structure IMHO. With any luck, this will continue for some time... though there are bound to be a few more bumps along the road. Patience is a virtue, and should be rewarded here.
gamesinvestor
15 Apr 2018
Closing Price? According to this article in the Telegraph (probably incorrect, as they tend to get most of the simpler things wrong - like spell checking) the share price on the graph at 16:52 on Friday was 135.75[link]
Intellectual Amateur
14 Apr 2018
S&P update on AA Just read "The Telegraph" report on S&P's latest AA evaluation; in short, S&P considers any deterioration in the AA's finances as "transitory," as a result of the investment strategy of Simon Breakwell et al. Also, that this strategy does, "not materially impact" its (S&P's) view on the AA's risk. Apparently the AA's primary corporate bond increased 3% on the back of S&P's statement.The SP had already bounced strongly in the six trading sessions before this S&P contribution; as has already been remarked, it seems shorters have been closing their positions & other buyers coming in ahead of the official results - so maybe we have had a nice confluence of more positive circumstances aiding our beloved investment.I'm no investment guru but can I postulate that a "steady" set of results, in line with the guidance & strategy change outlined on 21st February, will be sufficient to hold our SP ground & perhaps make further modest upward progress?Monday will be interesting but I guess Tuesday will be more definitive.Realistically, I am looking for a SP hovering around 125p; on a more fantastical basis, I am dreaming about a return to the 150-185p range - might take a while, mind!All the best Fellow-Believers - just shooting the breeze & typing out loud.
Intellectual Amateur
13 Apr 2018
Hold (ing) Is this 30%+, short-seller rout, bounce-back contingent upon Tuesday's results? Can we go south of 100p again soon or can the sp hold & stagger back towards 125p -ish?Anyone with a crystal ball? LOLIf I can fix my car, I'm re-joining the AA in a single man/ car attempt to push the sp to my break-even! LOLHave a warmer & happier non-AA-calling weekend everybody.
contrarianstyle
12 Apr 2018
Re: 12% pop Hopefully the damage is done and they will continue to close out short positions!I 1st bought at 1.50 thinking they were cheap... but have added a few more times down to 75p to average down.
Johandesilva
12 Apr 2018
Re: 12% pop Shorts had peaked and are closing and this could be the rush for the door in time for the build-up to results on the 17th: [link]
contrarianstyle
11 Apr 2018
Re: 12% pop Very strange, rallied above £1 today....no news or anything out.
Johandesilva
09 Apr 2018
Re: 12% pop Worth looking at the [link] for clues. Also think about the potential short-term benefit of Brexit that the market may be a little slow to pick up on that could increase upto B-day.
emisbod
07 Apr 2018
Re: 12% pop SP in 90s now. Does this mean the shorters are starting to bail out and if so can we expect a jump in the SP further?
Kool Keith
18 Mar 2018
AA wants their shares back.... Apologies if already posted. [link]
contrarianstyle
09 Mar 2018
Re: 12% pop Be careful following shorters. Capita was not shorted that much and collapsed.But for me it looks too cheap and continue to hold, having added some more at 75p. Although don`t have too much in this, in case the worst case scenario does happen...
Johandesilva
08 Mar 2018
Re: 12% pop The short positions here indicate that this is nothing like a Carillion that had a quarter of its stock in a short position. Not to mention all the other factors. While I can never be certain like numberbiter (The Investment God) this looks to be quite the opposite slowly paying down debt, not growing it. [link]
Bill1703
08 Mar 2018
Re: 12% pop "It is amazing that the stock market is still being driven by rumour and innuendo... when private equity buys into a listed company their usual strategy is to load the company up with debt, but they cannot do this in AA's case as it is already loaded with debt." The market has always been driven by such "sentimental" factors, and always will be... over any short term period, anyway. I'm amazed you're amazed, NB...I agree, there doesn't seem to be much in this for any new private equity interest... "sloppy seconds" springs to mind. Then again, "financial" M&A (ie. non-industrial) can take many forms... if they see enough upside. For example, you could sell off insurance, look to run the core business harder (without starving it of vital investment) and expect to pay down the debt faster (no divi payments, of course) - the equity returns could be significant, if you get this right. But it'd be a long term plan, and possibly longer than most PE players would countenance.. And I'm not sure what "change of control" or other restrictions there may be in the current debt covenants. "It would not surprise me if the company went into administration and the administrator sold the company's assets to the highest bidder (being the company's directors) so we would have a revived company 'New AA Plc'."Sure, it's a perfectly plausible scenario, eventually - as it is for any highly indebted business. Plausible, but not probable IMHO ... the key question is, what would trigger such a move? Absent any dramatic downturn in core business cash generation, hard to see anything before 2020 at the earliest (the next significant debt maturity) - and even then, a higher debt coupon on that portion (£500m from memory?), rather than an actual credit crunch, seems like the more likely negative scenario?
contrarianstyle
08 Mar 2018
Re: Normal service... Probably the buyers yesterday didn`t realise the private equity bid was just in some former CEO`s claim notes against the company , who`s been fired and could be saying anything for his own case
numberbiter
08 Mar 2018
Re: 12% pop It is amazing that the stock market is still being driven by rumour and innuendo. To get the record straight, if I recommend a 'strong sell' (admittedly after I have reviewed the accounts after a fall) then further falls can be anticipated. Note I recommended a 'strong sell' for Luceco at 128p and Carillion at 55p. I never buy a 'strong sell' recommendation even if the price were to go down to 1p (a friend suggested I buy Carillion at 14p).Now, when private equity buys into a listed company their usual strategy is to load the company up with debt, but they cannot do this in AA's case as it is already loaded with debt. A takeover is unlikely as anyone taking over the company would have to take on the debt. It would not surprise me if the company went into administration and the administrator sold the company's assets to the highest bidder (being the company's directors) so we would have a revived company 'New AA Plc'. That way, AA would stay in business and the majority of employees would keep their jobs. Priority creditors would get something back and everybody else would get diddly-squat.This is what I think will happen; only time will tell!
