Gamesinvestor1
13 Sep 2018
Societe General [link] Games
Gamesinvestor1
13 Sep 2018
Societe General Taken 4.17% stake on 31st August 2018
contrarianstyle
04 May 2018
Cleveland Square raises stake in AA to 4% Cleveland Square raises stake in AA to 4.02 percent – filing07:44LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) – Cleveland Square, an investment vehicle rule by private equity investor Gary Klesch, has raised its stake in British roadside recovery group and insurer AA , a regulatory filing showed on Friday.Cleveland has increased its stake to 4.02 percent from 3.01 percent.A recent slump in AA's share price has prompted speculation of takeover bids by private equity firms.
Bill1703
22 Apr 2018
Re: Closing Price? "... I suspect a few of us are looking forward to any analysis from Bill on these results."JDS - apologies, have been somewhat distracted in recent days, but have indeed been following the Amazing Adventures of AA. I think the key point - one which some appeared to have missed - is that there's very little analysis to be done on these results. Almost all of it, on both reported FY figures and forward projections, we already had, by way of the recent strategy review and other announcements. So whatever else may be moving the SP, it is not these results.One point to note... I saw some suggestion that cash flow was disappointing, and it is true the net pay-down of debt was relatively small (after a number of one-offs, eg. on pensions, though again, much of this could have been anticipated). Looking at underlying free cash flow (ie. pre debt refinancing), it actually looks solid enough and in line with previous years, at (very broadly) £100m or so. So I am relaxed on this point.So where from here? Yes, leverage is sky high... we already knew that. But as we've covered on here before, people are wrong to think it means an early equity raising - the nature of the WBS (whole business securitisation) structure dictates against it, with severe early debt redemption penalties, etc. I still think it is part of the agenda longer term, but management projections - if they can meet them - suggest this is not a given. And remember, there are no significant debt maturities until mid-2020. I think the recent confirmation of investment-grade credit status has been a major catalyst, even if that shouldn't have been any big surprise either (see previous posts). Beyond that... shorts getting squeezed? A general uptick in market sentiment towards "UK value" situations? A reappraisal of interest rate concerns? Who knows... ultimately it's hard to rationalise the bounce from 80p back towards 150p - other than being the flip side of the excessively pessimistic dive down there in the first place.No reason to suggest that we've seen the last of out-sized gyrations here - and I continue to contend, for all the reasons well trawled, that the range of possible SP "outcomes" here remains unusually wide. But I am happy holding for the medium term at least - it's now over to the new management to deliver on their projections.
II Editor
20 Apr 2018
NEW ARTICLE: Stockwatch: A speculative binary call "Does a 90% rebound in the mid-cap shares of roadside assistance and car/home insurance group LSE:AA.:AA reflect a turning point in the underlying business, or a technical jump as (some) short sellers buy back?Mark Breakwell, the ..."[link]
Jedi Council
19 Apr 2018
Re: share price support and resistance l... Well I did indeed cartch a falling knife! Almost took my life but now,back to full health again, sold for a small profit 😀
Johandesilva
18 Apr 2018
Re: Closing Price? I and I suspect a few of us are looking forward to any analysis from Bill on these results. Thanks.
Intellectual Amateur
18 Apr 2018
Back in the Game! Boom! even better than I anticipated / hoped for!....I'm not overly confident that we can hold here (130-135p) but I fancy us / SP holding at the 120-125p range; maybe this dramatic recovery could entice a few major speculators & bump us up to 150p?I read an article from yesterday (Tuesday) that described the shares as "dirt cheap" though it bemoaned the extreme long-term nature of the investment - not exactly a novel observation!If we get a solid, if unspectacular, first half result (on 25th September) then I think we can return to a 150-175p range, though we'd need a good final result, to offset the dividend cut, to maintain that into late 2019 & beyond.I do not expect to make any profit from this stock now. I am focused on "damage limitation," as long a "Hold" as I can manage & as low a loss as possible. Fingers crossed.I think the closing price is the highest since the 30th of Jan's 133.95p (that's just from my non-definitive pen & paper records!). My paper deficit is looking palatable / manageable now....so my nerves would appreciate some slower, plainer sailing for a while, if the trading gods could take pity upon me.This is, without doubt, the craziest stock that I have ever held! Talk about a roller-coaster!Good luck to everybody! -
Recovery required
17 Apr 2018
Re: Short Squeeze? Definitely a short squeeze. From a peak of 12.5% to 9.56% although obviously delayed reporting.
thirty fifty twenty
17 Apr 2018
at 135p - thoughts ouch - i got that badly wrong!still cant see how they can move forward without a rights issue,i guess they may use share price stength to get the funding away at 100p or even 120pall IMHO DYOR + BoLAA is in my portfolio (SHORT)
contrarianstyle
17 Apr 2018
Short Squeeze? Some big movements pushing us up now, will be interesting to see if the short positions are closing
contrarianstyle
17 Apr 2018
Breakdown service AA boosted by signs of recovery [link] has also bought 142500 shares at 1.18
gamesinvestor
17 Apr 2018
AA Parks Profit [link] those that haven't read the headlineGames
gamesinvestor
17 Apr 2018
Re: at 114p mgt indicate a rights issue mgt nice summary 30-50-20,The stock is now at 121.6 (not 114) and seems to be on a rising trajectory.If you were overly nervous about this recovery in sentiment fizzling out, then perhaps a ratcheting stop loss might be a better strategy.Hopefully it's not quite as gloomy as your numbers suggest and the old rating agency guys (for what they are worth - not a carrot maybe) have reinforced the relative debt safety of late.Games - being short seems like a risky strategy, given the debt could play out over many years. They say that the stock can stay irrational longer than your short remains in force!! or words to that effect.
thirty fifty twenty
17 Apr 2018
at 114p mgt indicate a rights issue mgt mgt have given guidance of EBITDA for next year of 335 to 345m (lets say 340)they also say growth of 5-8% a year for the future(so lets say 6% a year, i.e. 25m growth in EBITDA for the next 4 yearsso in 4 years EBITDA will be 440mdebt is currently 2.7bnmgt say that they are targeting a debt/EBITDA ratio of 3-4 timescash flow next year will be 20m,then 80m, then 100m for the futureso in 4years debt will have reduced to 2.4bnso even in 4 years time EBITDA will be 5.5 times debt!!projecting furtehr it will take 8 years to reach the gmt debt to EBITDA target!!!so i think it goes without saying that a fund raising is on the cards.i have taken debt as stated,and this is ignoring the penion deficit of £330m,and of £250m of deferred income (i.e. money they have recevied in advance from customers)i'm amazed that they are planning a 2p dividend for the forseeable futurethe new ceo will be able to re-finance the business as build from thereand they are in litigation with the old CEO (he is claiming £227m!!)so it all could get messyhard to see why investors would buy at this priceand a rights could be 50p though i think 80p more likelyAll IMHO, DYOR + BoLAA is in my portfolio (SHORT)
