Gulf Keystone Petroleum Live Discussion

ValueSeeker8 25 Feb 2020

Transactions in Own Shares RNS - Transaction in Own Shares Best Regards @ValueSeeker8

MikeyAdmin 25 Feb 2020

Breakdown of September's Production Payment If one takes the Contractor combined split of the Profit of $5,546,997.45 and divide it my the September Oil Production, the resulting figure should be how much the Contractors, GKP & MOL, gain Net per barrel from Shaikan $5,546,997.45 ÷ 1,110,000 = $4.997295 Add on the Lifting costs of $3.9 +$4.997295 = $8.897295, (£6.84), which is close to what GKP have always stated

MikeyAdmin 25 Feb 2020

Closing Prices Close . . . . 169.20 Open . . . . 173.60 High . . . . .173.60 . . . 08.00.24 . . AT Low . . . . . 166.20 . . . 15.37.58 . . AT MD Auc . . 1 @ 169p LSE Vols . . . . 354,246 . . . 499 trades AT trades . . . 395 . . 79.16% OT trades . . . 104 . . . 16.00.00 CP . . . 84,575 @ 165.60 FTSE100 . . . 7,017.88 . (-138.95) . (-1.94%) Brent Crude . . . $54.96 . (-0.87) . (-1.56%) . . (15mins delayed) If the Chinese weren’t so “into their wild animal potions” and “slaughtering wild animals in Abattoirs” where the disease got pasted onto normal every day produce, then the Corona outbreak wouldn’t have started.

MikeyAdmin 25 Feb 2020

Level 2 FTSE100 . . . 7,098.43 . (-58.40) . (-0.82%) after being up 40+ points has fallen back Brent Crude . . . $55.55 . (-0.22) . (-0.39%) after being up 1% has fallen back Close . . . . 169.20 Open . . . . 173.60 High . . . . .173.60 . . . 08.00.24 . . AT Low . . . . . 166.60 . . . 10.41.15 . . AT MD Auc . . 1 @ 169p Full 145,666----240,704 35----45 LSE Vols . . . . 354,246 . . . 222 trades AT trades . . . 161 OT trades . . . 61 . . . 12.20.50 Spread 169----169.6 . . Mid 169.3p

MikeyAdmin 25 Feb 2020

Breakdown of the September Production Payment I’ve checked and re-checked my figures & calculations but even so, please check yourselves The Calculations are for a R-Factor of 22.5%—77.5% based on the September Production & Payment, and are to show how GKP use Shaikan PSC Terms of Contract to work out Shaikans Production Payments Screencast.com 2020-02-21_1346 Shared from Screencast.com . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Production 37,000bpd x 30 = 1,110,000b x $41.13 = $45,654,300 . . (courtesy of @ValueSeeker8) $45,654,300 – 10% KRG Royalty Payment = $41,088,870 $41,088,870 x 40% = $16,435,548 Contractors Costs Recovery $41,088,870 x 60% = $24,653,322 Profit Oil The $24,653,322 Profit Oil is then split by the R-Factor of 22.5----77.5% $24,653,322 x 22.5% = $5,546,997.45 . . . is split along the WI Lines of 80% GKP 20% MOL $24,653,322 x 77.5% = $19,106,324.55 . . goes straight to the KRG The $5,546,997.45 Contractor Share of the Profit Oil divided along WI Lines of 80% & 20% = GKP . $4,437,597.96 . . . MOL . $1,109,399.49 GKP as the Main Contractor has to pay the 40% Capacity Building Tax GKP $4,437,597.96 x 40% = ($1,775,039.18 CB Tax) = $2,662,558.88 GKP Profit Oil $16,435,548 Contractors Costs Recovery is split along WI Lines $16,435,548 x 80% & 20% = GKP . $13,148,438.40 . . . MOL . $3,287,109.60 MOL Cost Recovery . $3,287,109.60 + Profit Oil $1,109,399.49 = $4,396,509.09 GKP Cost Recovery . $13,148,438.40 + Profit Oil $2,662,558.88 = $15,810,997.18 MOL’s $4,396,509.09 + GKP’s $15,810,997.18 = So in my opinion the R-Factor GKP are using to calculated the Oil Revenue Payments is pretty damn close to a R-Factor of 22.5% - - - 77.5% Please Note. In the following RNS it states . . the payment is “($15.8 million net to GKP)” which means there are no further deductions [link]

MikeyAdmin 25 Feb 2020

Level 2 FTSE100 . . . 7,098.43 . (-58.40) . (-0.82%) after being up 40+ points has fallen back Brent Crude . . . $55.55 . (-0.22) . (-0.39%) after being up 1% has fallen back Close . . . . 169.20 Open . . . . 173.60 High . . . . .173.60 . . . 08.00.24 . . AT Low . . . . . 166.60 . . . 10.41.15 . . AT MD Auc . . Full 151,286----241,269 44----41 LSE Vols . . . . 328,981 . . . 197 trades AT trades . . . 145 OT trades . . . 52 . . . 11.31.20 Spread 168.4----169.2 . . Mid 168.8p

MikeyAdmin 25 Feb 2020

Opening Prices FTSE100 . . . 7,156.83 . (-247.09) . (-3.34%) Brent Crude . . $55.28 . (-2.66) . (-4.59%) GKP . . . 101,668 @ 169.2p . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . FTSE100 . . . 7,185.96 . (+29.13) . (+0.41%) Brent Crude . . . $56.29 . (+0.53) . (+0.95%) . . . (15mins delayed) OP . . . No UT . . . 1st AT . . . 236 @ 173p . . . timed 08.00.24 2,000 @ 169.2, 169 & 168p, 25,000 @ 168p, 1,975 @ 159.6p, 5,000 x 2 @ 150 & 140p, 10,000 @ 140 & 132p = 72,975 8,500 @ 174, 20,000 @ 176, 180 & 185p, 3,000 @ 180p, 16,000 @ 199p, 30,000 @ 25p, 7,000 @ 216p and 12,000 @ 249p = 132,000 Blocks of Auction only Orders @ 176p, 180p 190p and 210p on the Ask Book at c.8.03am 171,075-----240,154 35----40 We may see a little rise today but treat with caution

MikeyAdmin 24 Feb 2020

Is Valueseeker8 Claim that GKP is Trading at a Loss True Based on a 20----80% Profit Oil Split $45,654,300 minus 10% KRG Royalty = $41,088,870 $41,088,870 x 40% = $16,435,548 Cost Recovery divided by Working Interest $41,088,870 x 60% = $24,653,322 Profit Oil divided by 20–80% split $16,435,548 Cost Recovery equates to GKP receiving $13,148,438.4 and MOL receiving $3,287,109.6 The KRG gets 80% of the Profit Oil, $24,635,322 x 80% = $19,708,257.6 GKP & MOL get 20% of the Profit Oil, $24,635,322 x 20% = $4,927,064.4 MOL gets 20% of the Profit Oil and 20% of the Cost Recovery $4,927,064.4 x 20% = $985,412.88 + $3,287,109.6 Cost Recovery = $4,272,522.48 GKP Pays the 40% Capacity Building Tax on its Profit Oil $4,927,064.4 x 80% = $3,941,651.52 x 40% = $1,576,660.61 Capacity Tax Payment. $3,941,651.52 - $1,576,660.61 = $2,364,990.91 is GKP’s Share of the Profit Oil GKP Profit Oil $2,364,990.91 + GKP Cost Recovery $13,148,438.4 = $15.513,429.31 Getting closer to the magic $15.8m figure

MikeyAdmin 24 Feb 2020

Is Valueseeker8 Claim that GKP is Trading at a Loss True Screencast.com 2020-02-24_0846 Shared from Screencast.com The actual Lifting costs as detailed in the Corporate Presentation January 2020 are $3.9, and as can be seen it is an opex (Operating Expense) which is claimable back under the PSC Licence via the Cost Recovery route. 1,110,000 x $3.9 = $4,329,000 Screencast.com 2020-02-21_1346 Shared from Screencast.com The above screenshot is of the Shaikan “Production Sharing Contract,” Summary of Terms, which in short, is the Holy Grail from which GKP calculates all the Production Payments. So if it’s not in the Summary of Terms, then any calculation one can think of should not be used. At the end of each Month, by using the above GKP has 10 days to calculate how much Oil has been Produced, at what Price relative to Brent, and at what Operating Expense, and deliver those Calculations to the MNR/KRG before or by the 10th day of the Month. Once received the MNR/KRG will check and agree the amount claimed, then Payment will be made at a time of the MNR/KRG’s choosing. (that is when the simple clockwork mechanism goes to pot) Please see the Screenshot below for confirmation of Article 3.11 Screencast.com 2020-02-20_0857 Shared from Screencast.com The “Production Sharing Contract,” Summery of Terms, lays out in detail how the Summary of Term should be used . . . and as GKP signed up to the Contract it should be viewed as a Legal Document. It is clearly stated that there are two independent calculation streams, on the left, in percentage terms of (40% of 90%) is Cost Recovery which is actually “36%” of the full 100% of the Gross Revenue after the KRG Royalty Payment is removed. Included in the Cost Recovery are all Shaikan Operating Expenses (opex) which of course include Lifting Costs and everything else which is deemed an Operating Expense. And on the right are the calculations that GKP uses to calculate the Profit Oil Payments to the KRG, MOL & GKP. GKP as the Main Contractor is solely responsible for making the calculations Please Note . . . there is no subtractions crossing from the Cost Recovery side to the Profit Oil side , they are two completely separate Calculations, which are shown joining together at the Contractor 30–15% R-Factor stage, before being Split between the Contractors along Working Interest lines, MOL 20% & GKP 80% At the R-Factor split stage at no point does it show any deductions for any Costs, Lifting or otherwise, but in the final box “GKPI 80%” is does say “less Capacity Building on Share of Profit Oil” which I am believe to be 40% but could possibly be 30% However there is a calculation missing from the “Production Sharing Contract,” Summery of Terms . . . and that is the current R-Factor percentage figure that are in use, which are between 30—70 and 15—85, and as the only variable in the entire Production Sharing Contract," Summery of Terms, the amount has to play an important part in the calculations. I’ve tried working backward without success, so the only way the correct R-Factor can be obtained is by a process of elimination. Using the September Production figures 30—70 split I got $18,174,132.65 which is to high Using the same September figures and a 15—85 split I got $14,920,535.66 which is to low So the correct R-Factor percentage that’s being used is somewhere in between the two extremes, possibly 20—80 or 23—77

ValueSeeker8 24 Feb 2020

Transactions in Own Shares RNS - Transaction in Own Shares Best Regards @ValueSeeker8

MikeyAdmin 24 Feb 2020

Closing Prices Close . . . . 181.80 Open . . . . 179.00 High . . . . .179.00 . . . 08.00.19 . . UT Low . . . . . 168.60 . . . 14.29.20 . . AT MD Auc . . 129 @ 173.2p LSE Vols . . . . 1,155,699 . . . 528 trades AT trades . . . 362 . . 68.56% OT trades . . . 166 CP . . . 101,668 @ 169.2p FTSE100 . . . 7,156.83 . (-247.09) . (-3.34%) . . . that’s a huge drop for one day Brent Crude . . $55.28 . (-2.66) . (-4.59%) . . (15mins delayed) …that’s the largest single day fall I’ve seen to the Oil Price since the Japanese Tsunami

MikeyAdmin 24 Feb 2020

Level 2 Just back indoors to see the low trade hit 169.2, which is quite a bit lower than I thought it may go. The next resistance is BMCM @ 168.8 and 25,000 @ 168, which is getting down to its low of early 2018 Close . . . . 181.80 Open . . . . 179.00 High . . . . .179.00 . . . 08.00.19 . . UT Low . . . . . 169.20 . . . 13.47.05 . . AT MD Auc . . 129 @ 173.2p Full 156,454----320,150 . . . . still heavily weighted to the downside 31----46 LSE Vols . . . . 694,996 . . . 296 trades AT trades . . . 177 OT trades . . . 119 . . 14.06.42 Spread 169.2----169.6 . . . 169.3p

MikeyAdmin 24 Feb 2020

Is Valueseeker8 Claim that GKP is Trading at a Loss True Clink . . . . Nelly’s has had his cage rattled . . . Bless

Nelly 24 Feb 2020

Is Valueseeker8 Claim that GKP is Trading at a Loss True MikeyAdmin: I will prove why @ValueSeeker8 is wrong and how & why @ValueSeeker8 is wrong later Unless of course @ValueSeeker8 realises his mistake and retracts his Statement seriously dude who gives a sh*t whether someone elses opinions are right or wrong and what gives you the right to be the forums self appointed judge and jury given you yourself have posted hundreds (if not thousands) of misleading posts over the years both on here and on other like minded forums !!! what a pathetic 60 something year old BULLY you are turning out to be and its no wonder everyone has deserted this place nowadays get yourself a frigging life

MikeyAdmin 24 Feb 2020

Is Valueseeker8 Claim that GKP is Trading at a Loss True “May I remind you that it costs money to extract oil and process it to export standards. Currently it’s circa $4 per barrel. This means that GKP and MOL had to spend circa $4,440,000 in order to produce 1,110,000 barrels of oil. Since GKP WI = 80%, then the cost to GKP is $3,552,000. And given that GKP’s net payment is $15.8 m, out of which is a $13,148,438.4 payment via the cost recovery route (capex recovery). This means that GKP received $2,651,561.6 via the profit oil route! This is not enough to cover the extraction cost (opex recovery)!! Meaning that, operationally, GKP made a loss of $900,438.4 during September 2019!!!” OFF COURSE NOT. @ValueSeeker8’s claims are completely False @ValueSeeker8 is totally wrong and I will prove why @ValueSeeker8 is wrong and how & why @ValueSeeker8 is wrong later Unless of course @ValueSeeker8 realises his mistake and retracts his Statement